Forecast of Traffic Accident at Sea with Improved SCGM（1,1）_C Model

An SCGM（1,1）_C（System Cloud Grey Model, SCGM（1.1）_C） Model is combined with Markov prediction and Particle swarm operation to improve the accuracy of traffic accident forecast at sea. The Markov SCGM（1,1）_C prediction model is built, incorporating the advantages of both Markov prediction and traditional SCGM（1,1）_C. Whitening transformation coefficient of Markov State region is optimized by particle swarm optimization. This makes a double correction of the SCGM（1,1）_C prediction model. The traffic accident data in the period of 2005—2019 is calculated with 3 model types respectively and fitting curves are drawn, which proves the advantage of the improved prediction model.