A Method for Analyzing Ship Motion Attitude under the Condition of Uncertain Sea Wave Forecast

The impact of the random error in sea wave prediction on ship motion attitude estimates is analyzed and a model is developed to estimate ship motion attitude under the condition of uncertain sea wave forecast.The uncertainty of the motion attitude estimates is quantitatively decided with PCE (Polynomial Chaos Expansion).The polynomial obtained through polynomial chaos expansion is inspected and verified by means of a ship rolling motion simulation.The commonly used Monte Carlo simulation is also conducted for comparison.The two simulation methods give equivalent results except the new one is 92% quicker.