Early warning of warehousing risk for cruise ship construction projects

The warehousing Risk index system is built. The index system is composed of 4 first level indexes and 12 second level indexes. The compound risk index is calculated with a multi-objective linear weighting function. The early warning model is built based on GM（1,1） power model. Fourier series and fuzzy Markov chain is introduced into the model. The levels of warning and corresponding thresholds are defined. One particular case of cruise construction project is examined with the model. The result is compared to those from ordinary GM（1,1） model and GM（1,1） power model. The accuracy achieved by the developed model is within-0.013 6 and 0.016 1, better than the latter two models do. The consistency is better, too.