Study on dynamic sea ice conditions and risk index outcome of the Arctic Northeast Passage

The navigability of the Arctic Northeast Passage is significantly affected by complex sea ice conditions,such as ice thickness and concentration. To ensure the safe navigation of vessels of various ice classes along Arctic routes,it is crucial to anticipate navigation risks and provide navigators with clear risk assessment data and decision-making support.Using Arctic sea ice analysis and forecast data,and based on the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System（POLARIS）,this study comprehensively calculates the dynamic sea ice risk index for vessels of different ice classes over future periods. It develops a dynamic Arctic sea ice data prediction model,integrating recommended mid-latitude routes for the Northeast Passage,to dynamically present changes in risk along these routes. Experimental results show that the dynamic prediction model can quantify the dynamic sea ice conditions and risk index throughout the Arctic region over future periods and dynamically display risk changes along the recommended mid-latitude routes of the Northeast Passage. This provides early warnings and support for navigation risk assessment and safe operations,meeting the needs of vessels with different ice classes for scheduling voyages and planning navigation.