Application pathways of alternative marine fuels for ships on China-Europe routes based on Total Cost of Ownership analysis

To accurately evaluate the impact of the European Union maritime carbon market mechanisms on the application pathways of alternative marine fuels for ships operating on China-Europe routes,a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model integrating technical,economic,and environmental factors is developed. The model incorporates ship initial capital investment,financing costs,fuel costs,carbon allowance costs under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS),as well as penalties and compliance surplus revenues associated with Fuel EU Maritime. Based on the proposed model,the economic performance of ships under different fuel application pathways is assessed. The results indicate that,under the current EU maritime regulatory framework,the operating costs of conventional fossil fuels increase significantly,making the transition toward green and low-carbon fuels an inevitable trend. Although green alternative fuels remain expensive at present,revenues generated through Fuel EU Maritime compliance surpluses can substantially reduce the TCO of alternative-fuel ships. In the short to medium term,biofuels represent the most economically viable option for maritime shipping,while e-fuels are expected to achieve large-scale deployment gradually around 2045.