Optimal response strategy of Chinese shipping enterprises under the EU shipping carbon emission reduction policy: research on multi-objective robust optimization based on NSGA-Ⅱ

With the implementation of the EU ETS and the European Union Maritime Fuels Regulation (Fuel EU),dual carbon constraints have been on Chinese shipping companies,making it urgent to seek the optimal strategy that balances compliance and economic benefits in the operation of China-Europe routes. To address the limitations of existing studies,which ignore the uncertainty of key parameters and failto integrate multi-dimensional decisions,a multi-objective robust optimization model based on NSGA-Ⅱ is constructed. Firstly,integrating life cycle cost analysis and grey relational analysis,LNG is selected from four alternative fuels as the transition fuel with the most cost-emission reduction comprehensive benefits. Secondly,taking the 20,000 TEU container ship on the Asia-Europe route as the research object,a multi-objective robust optimization model considering the price uncertainty of EUA,LNG and diesel is constructed. The model introduces budget conservatism parameters to control uncertainty fluctuations,and synergistically optimizes the LNG substitution ratio,vessel speed,number of transit ports,and technology renewal plans,aiming to minimize the total annual compliance cost and carbon emissions in EU waters. Based on the empirical analysis of four typical China-Europe container routes,this paper identifies three types of typical strategies: cost priority (LNG substitution ratio 92%,speed 18. 26 knots,no transit port,no technology update),emission reduction priority (LNG substitution ratio 98%,speed 12. 00 knots,2 transit ports,technology update) and comprehensive optimization (LNG substitution ratio 95%,speed 14. 76 knots,1 transit port,no technology update). The results show that LNG can effectively balance costs and emission reduction targets,and there is a significant trade-off between total compliance costs and carbon emissions,and the marginal emission reduction cost increases with the increase of emission reduction efforts. Finally,this paper proposes a phased strategy system of " short-term LNG substitution,medium-term speed and route optimization,and long-term diversified fuel layout",which provides a theoretical basis and practical path for Chinese shipping enterprises to cope with the new EU policy.