考虑人和组织因素的船舶搁浅事故形成路径分析
Path analysis of ship grounding accident formation considering human and organizational factors
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摘要: 为系统性分析船舶搁浅事故致因和形成路径,提出基于人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)与模糊贝叶斯网络(BN)相结合的船舶搁浅事故人与组织因素分析方法。基于HFACS建立搁浅事故分析的系统框架,通过搁浅事故调查报告挖掘的方法对诱发船舶搁浅事故的人与组织因素(HOF)进行识别研究;采用船舶事故调查报告与专家调研相结合的方法,构建基于BN的船舶事故致因模型,结合模糊逻辑对BN模型进行量化分析;对船舶搁浅事故致因模型进行敏感性分析。结果表明:考虑人与组织因素的船舶搁浅事故的形成路径为安全氛围差—监管不力—知识技能欠缺—瞭望不当—未及时识别危险—未及时采取定位并调整航向—船舶搁浅事故。模型和研究结果可为船舶搁浅事故预防和航运企业安全管理提供借鉴和参考。Abstract: In order to systematically analyze the caution and formation paths of ship grounding accidents,a human and organizational factor analysis method for ship grounding accidents is proposed based on the combination of human factor analysis and classification system HFACS(Human Factor Analysis and Classification System) and fuzzy BN(Bayesian Network).Based on HFACS,a systematic framework for grounding accident analysis is established;HOF(Human and Organizational Factors) inducing ship grounding accidents are identified and studied through the method of mining investigation reports of grounding accidents;a ship accident causation model based on BN is constructed by combining the method of ship accident investigation reports and expert inquiry,and a quantitative analysis is performed on the BN model by combining fuzzy logic;and a sensitivity analysis is performed on the ship grounding accident causation model.The results show that the path of ship grounding accidents considering human and organizational factors is:safety climateinadequate supervision-lack of knowledge and skills-inappropriate lookout-failure to identify hazards in time-failure to take positioning and adjust course in time-ship grounding accidents.The model and the results of the study can provide lessons and references for the prevention of ship grounding accidents and the safety management of shipping companies.