基于反向传播神经网络的分航段船舶油耗预测模型

    Segmental prediction model of ship fuel consumption based on backpropagation neural networks

    • 摘要: 对船舶主机油耗进行预测是船舶进行能效优化的基础和前提,对于不同航行区域下的船舶油耗预测结果进行分析,更能提升油耗模型的预测性能。根据航行区域等因素选取5个航段作为试验对象并建立油耗模型,对主机油耗的影响因素进行分析。选择主机转速、风速、风向等作为模型的输入变量,选择主机瞬时油耗和航速作为输出变量,利用反向传播神经网络对油耗进行预测。试验结果表明各个航段油耗和航速的预测结果误差分别不超过2.5%和1.8%,风力变化较为平稳的航段2和航段3的预测误差低于其他航段;模型的预测精度会受到风力变化程度的影响,但在不同航段的预测性能均可满足后续进行能效优化的要求。

       

      Abstract: The prediction of ship main engine fuel consumption is the basis and premise of ship energy efficiency optimization,and the analysis of ship fuel consumption prediction results under different sailing areas can more effectively improve the prediction performance of the fuel consumption model.This paper selects five voyage segments as the experimental objects according to the sailing areas and establish the fuel consumption model,analyze the factors affecting the main engine fuel consumption select the main engine speed,wind speed,wind direction,etc.as the input variables of the model,and the instantaneous fuel consumption of the main engine and the voyage speed as the output variables,and use the back-propagation neural network to make predictions on the model.The experimental results show that the prediction errors for fuel consumption and speed are no more than 2.5% and 1.8%,respectively;however,in segment 2and segment 3,where the wind varies more steadily,the corresponding prediction errors are lower than those in other segments.The final experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the fuel consumption model is affected by the degree of wind variation,but the prediction performance in different segments can meet the requirements for subsequent energy efficiency optimization.

       

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