Abstract: In recent years,with the further release of the efficiency of the 12.5-meter deep water channel in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River,the number of Capesize ships arriving at the ports in the B-class navigation area of Yangtze River show an increasing trend year by year,reaching more than 878 ships in 2023. In order to predict the number of Capesize ships arriving at the ports,this paper reviews various short-term prediction methods and finds that the Grey Markov combination prediction model has higher and adaptability. Therefore,this paper determines the peak value of arrival volume of Capesize ships at each port in the B-class navigation area of the Yangtze River in recent years through statistics and analysis of the port arrival volume,turnaround time of ships in port and annual operating days of each port,and then uses the Grey Markov prediction model to obtain the predicted port arrival volume of Capesize ships in the next three years. The results show that:the port of the Yangtze River B-class navigation area will continue to grow in the next three years,and will be close to 1 000 ships in 2026.