基于集对分析的港口物流系统脆弱性评价

    Vulnerability assessment of port logistics system based on set pair analysis

    • 摘要: 脆弱性理论广泛应用于灾害学、生态学等领域,然而针对港口物流系统的脆弱性研究较少。首先基于港口物流系统脆弱性的内涵和影响因素,构建了“基础设施条件、运营管理水平、城市经济条件、产业支撑情况”4个维度的港口物流系统脆弱性评价指标体系;其次,运用集对分析法纵向评价了2010年—2019年上海港口物流系统脆弱性,通过障碍因子诊断模型找出影响港口物流系统脆弱性降低的瓶颈,并提出相应的脆弱性控制对策保障上海市可持续发展。结果表明:上海港口物流系统敏感性与脆弱性均呈波动下降趋势,应对性初期平稳后期逐渐上升,现阶段表现为“低敏感、高应对、低脆弱”状态,其中,公路通车里程、铁路运营里程、万吨级及以上泊位数等因素是上海港口物流系统脆弱性产生的主要原因。

       

      Abstract: Vulnerability theory extensively apply to catastrophology,ecology and other fields,which seldom used in the vulnerability of port logistics system. First,the vulnerability of port logistics system is introduced. The vulnerability evaluation index system with four dimensions of "port logistics infrastructure,operation management level,urban economic level and industrial support conditions" was constructed. Secondly,set pair analysis was used to evaluate the vulnerability of Shanghai port logistics system from 2010 to 2019. Ultimately,the major influencing factors of the vulnerability of the port logistics system were identified by using obstacle degree model,which provided corresponding vulnerability control countermeasures to ensure the sustainable development of Shanghai. The consequences indicate that the sensitivity and vulnerability of Shanghai port logistics system both fluctuate and decrease,resilience gradually increases in the early stage,in the later stage,the development trend of "low sensitivity,high resilience and low vulnerability" is currently shown. The mileage of highway opening,railway opening mileage and the number of berths above 10,000 tons or above and other factors are the main reasons for the vulnerability of Shanghai port logistics system.

       

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