基于IGWO-GMDH的有效波高预测模型研究

    Application of coupled IGWO-GMDH model in the prediction of significant wave height

    • 摘要: 海洋波浪具有显著的随机性、非线性特征,有效波高预测对于船舶航行安全、航路规划等具有重要意义。改进灰狼算法(GWO)搜索机制,并将其与基于分组数据处理方法(GMDH)模型相耦合,提出一种有效波高预测模型;结合波高实测数据集验证预测模型精度,探讨模型不同输入参数的权重占比。研究结果表明:相较于经典GMDH模型,所建立的IGWO-GMDH模型预测精度更高,均方误差减小2.65%、均方根误差降低约1.35%、标准差降低2.14%;波浪特征参数与风场数据的权重占比较高,两者组合对于模型预测精度影响较大。所构建的IGWO-GMDH模型可预测分析有效波高,为船舶航行安全、航路规划与优化等研究提供理论支撑。

       

      Abstract: Ocean waves are characterised as random and non-linear. Predicting significant wave height is critical for ensuring the safety of ship navigation and route planning. In the present study, the Grey Wolf optimiser was improved by optimising the search mechanism and coupled it with the Grouping Method Data Handling model to construct an effective significant wave height prediction model. This novel prediction model was validated using a significant wave height dataset. The weights of the different model variables were also explored. The results show that the IGWO-GMDH model is more accurate. The mean square error decreased by 2.65%, and the root mean square error decreased by approximately 1.35%. The standard deviation was reduced by 2.14%. Additionally, the weights of the wave characteristic parameters and the wind field data are relatively high; combining these would significantly impact the model's accuracy. The IGWO-GMDH model will provide more robust predictions of significant wave height and support research into ship navigation safety and route planning and optimisation.

       

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