Abstract: With the increasing proportion of inland LNG fuel in the energy structure under China's "dual-carbon strategy", the consequences of LNG leakage on water surfaces have become a primary risk factor in its promotion and operational processes. While some studies have verified the validity of LNG ground leakage models, the heat exchange process between water surfaces and LNG is far more intense than on land, and its impact on leakage consequences cannot be overlooked. Based on existing research, this paper proposes a heat transfer simulation method for LNG leakage on water surfaces, integrating a multiphase flow model, turbulent diffusion model, and combustion model. Using data from large-scale LNG water leakage tests (Falcon-1 and Phoenix-1), statistical parameters such as FB, MG, VG, MRSE, NMSE, and FAC2 are employed as quantitative evaluation metrics to assess LNG leakage behavior and its effects. The results demonstrate that when simulating LNG waterborne leakage, diffusion, and combustion using this method, the quantitative evaluation indices meet the model validity criteria. This confirms that the model can effectively predict the consequences of LNG waterborne leakage, providing critical insights for policymaking related to inland waterway LNG operations and fuel safety. Thus, the model can serve as a reliable tool for future LNG waterborne leakage simulations.