基于航行观测数据的船舶油耗智能预测方法比较研究

    A comparative study of intelligent methods for predicting ship fuel consumption using navigation monitoring data

    • 摘要: 船舶燃油消耗预测在船舶航行决策和能效智能评估中起着至关重要的作用,对未来的海上自主水面船舶(MASS)而言更是如此。研究基于某全球航线28 000DWT散货船上的船舶实测数据采集系统,采集、分析了该船2010年至2016年在不同海域、不同装载状态、不同气象海况影响下的船舶航速、航向、船舶摇荡、主机转速、气象海况等船舶航行相关数据。然后,以实时波高、波向、航速、风速、纵摇角度、主机功率和主机转速为输入,构建了基于LightGBM算法的船舶油耗预测模型。最后,将模型预测结果与支持向量回归模型(SVR),长短期记忆网络(LSTM),门控循环单元(GRU),人工神经网络(ANN),极端梯度提升(XGBoost)等机器学习模型进行比较,其中LightGBM预测模型均方根误差(RMSE)降低7.26%,平均绝对误差(MAE)至少降低2.62%,决定系数R2提高0.23%,模型运行时间缩短73.76%。此外,根据船舶实际装载状况,将以上航行数据分为4组,进一步验证了所构建LightGBM模型在船舶油耗预测中的泛化应用能力。结果表明,文章所提出的LightGBM模型可用于预测船舶燃料消耗,同时兼顾准确性和运行效率,这有助于为同类型船舶选择最优船舶油耗预测方法提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Ship fuel consumption prediction plays a crucial role in navigation decision-making and the intelligent evaluation of energy efficiency, particularly for future Marine Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). This study leverages an onboard measurement and data acquisition system installed on a 28,000 DWT bulk carrier operating on global routes. With the system, navigation-related data from 2010 to 2016 across different sea areas, loading conditions, and meteorological and sea states were collected and analyzed, including ship speed, course, sway, main engine speed, and environmental parameters. Using real-time inputs such as wave height, wave direction, speed, wind speed, pitch angle, main engine power, and main engine speed, a fuel consumption prediction model was developed based on the lightGBM algorithm. The performance of this model was compared with other machine learning approaches, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBootst). Results show that the proposed model achieves superior performance, with RMSE reduced by 7.26%, MAE reduced by at least 2.62%, R2 increased by 0.23%, and runtime shortened by 73.76%. Furthermore, the navigation data was divided into four subsets based on actual loading conditions to further validate the generalization capability of the lightGBM model. The results indicate that the proposed LightGBM model provides an effective solution for predicting ship fuel consumption, striking a balance between accuracy and computation efficiency. This study also provides a valuable reference for selecting optimal fuel consumption prediction methods in comparable vessel types.

       

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