考虑船舶所有人偏好因素的国际中转港评价方法

    Evaluation of International Port of Transshipment with Preference of Ship owner Acounted

    • 摘要: 研究国际中转港选择的因素通常只考虑港口的特性,但船舶所有人的偏好也很大程度影响国际中转港的选择。文章将船舶所有人偏好考虑在内,构建国际中转港选择的评价指标体系,由于每个专家所做出的决策存在着差异性,因此提出层次分析法和证据融合理论结合的模糊综合决策方法,以保证信息的准确性和可靠性。通过层次分析法确定评价因素的权重;运用模糊数学方法,通过专家问卷调查确定各因素所属状态的隶属度和各专家对评价因素的基本概率函数;同时运用折扣证据理论融合专家的证据;最后根据加权平均函数,依据最大隶属函数原则,得出在厦门港和高雄港中,船舶所有人的偏好在国际中转港选择中都处于"重要的"等级,这对国际中转港选择具有重要的参考价值。

       

      Abstract: The Preference of ship owner have great influence on transit port selection. However, the published studies on transit port evaluation tend to focus on features of ports only, seldom involving the Preference of Ship owner. An assessment index system involving both port features and preference of ship owner is built. A fuzzy comprehensive decision-making strategy based on integration of AHP and evidence fusion theory is developed to deal with the differences between different specialist opinions from questionnaire. The AHP is used to decide the weights of assessment indexes and the fuzzy mathematics is used to process questionnaire feedback from experts and define the degree of membership of the measurements of indexes and the basic probability function of the opinions from experts. Evidences from experts are fused with discount evidence theory. The weighted average function is used to decide the final result according to the principle of maximizing membership function. Xiamen Port and Gaoxiong port are evaluated, which shows that both of them are at the level of "Important" as for ship owner’s preference is considered.

       

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