Path analysis of ship grounding accident formation considering human and organizational factors

In order to systematically analyze the caution and formation paths of ship grounding accidents,a human and organizational factor analysis method for ship grounding accidents is proposed based on the combination of human factor analysis and classification system HFACS（Human Factor Analysis and Classification System） and fuzzy BN（Bayesian Network）.Based on HFACS,a systematic framework for grounding accident analysis is established;HOF（Human and Organizational Factors） inducing ship grounding accidents are identified and studied through the method of mining investigation reports of grounding accidents;a ship accident causation model based on BN is constructed by combining the method of ship accident investigation reports and expert inquiry,and a quantitative analysis is performed on the BN model by combining fuzzy logic;and a sensitivity analysis is performed on the ship grounding accident causation model.The results show that the path of ship grounding accidents considering human and organizational factors is:safety climateinadequate supervision-lack of knowledge and skills-inappropriate lookout-failure to identify hazards in time-failure to take positioning and adjust course in time-ship grounding accidents.The model and the results of the study can provide lessons and references for the prevention of ship grounding accidents and the safety management of shipping companies.