Multi-objective optimization of low-carbon transition strategies for container ship fleets

With the continued advancement of China "dual-carbon" goals and the increasingly stringent emission reduction regulations of the International Maritime Organization(IMO), the shipping industry is facing more severe emission reduction challenges and urgently needs to clarify the green transition pathways. Most of the existing research focuses on the selection of alternative fuels, while there is relatively little research on emission reduction strategies from the perspective of the fleet. To address the shortcomings of the existing research, this study identifies the key factors influencing fleet green transition decisions. Based on this, a bi-objective linear programming model jointly considering economic and environmental objectives is established, and a genetic algorithm combined with the ε-constraint method is constructed to solve the model. Finally, taking the 10,000-11,000 TEU container fleet of COSCO Shipping Group as a case study, this research derives the optimal green transition strategy for the fleet during the planning horizon, encompassing fuel choices and operational configurations for individual vessels. Sensitivity analysis reveals that fluctuations in fuel prices significantly affect the selection of engine types during vessel retrofitting and renewal decisions, while the stringency of emission reduction targets directly influences fleet transition costs, thereby affecting corporate proactiveness in pursuing decarbonization initiatives. Consequently, policymakers should establish appropriately calibrated emission reduction targets and incentive mechanisms to accelerate the advancement of low-carbon technologies, reduce fleet transition costs, and expedite the achievement of decarbonization objectives in the shipping industry.