Improved CREAM Model for Prediction of Human Reliability Concerning Harbor Pilots

The cognitive reliability and error analysis method（basic CREAM（Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method） method） is improved by introducing fuzzy scoring into the performance evaluation on CPC（Common Performance Condition） factors. This makes the prior conditional probability a probability value instead of a definite value so as to handle experts’ subjectivity better. With the help of Bayesian network technology, the CREAM model decides the control mode and calculates the HEP（Human Error Probability）, and analyzes the human factor reliability of the pilots in actual scenario. The improvement of the model is verified with practical examples.