海上风电水域船舶航行风险量化研究现状综述

    A Survey of Quantitative Risk Evaluation for Ships Navigating in Area of Offshore Wind Farm

    • 摘要: 为系统地分析国内外海上风电水域船舶通航研究现状,加强我国海上风电水域船舶安全管理水平,在广泛收集国内外海上风电相关研究的基础上,比较讨论几种具有代表性的通航风险量化模型。研究发现:部分国家虽然已将传统航路风险量化模型用于选址实践,但受风电场水域附近船舶航行多因素耦合影响,船舶航行状态多变,风险量化尤为困难;现有模型难以满足风险实时和精确量化需求。未来研究应借鉴风险研究领域新的技术方法、进一步丰富数据来源,加强风险因素耦合机理、事故致因研究。

       

      Abstract: The overseas research achievements in quantitative evaluation of risks associated with ships navigating in the area of wind farm are reviewed and typical risk evaluation models are compared. The research shows that although some of the models have been used in practical site choosing of wind farms, they are not good enough for quantitatively evaluating the risks associated. The coupling effects of multiple factors makes the task extremely difficult, and the variability of navigation situation makes it even more hard. More researches are needed, especially in the coupling mechanism of the influencing factors and the causes of accidents. Grasp of more data and introduction of new technology are also necessary.

       

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