基于VAR模型的港口群和区域经济协同发展比较研究

    VAR-Model Based Comparative Study on Coordinated Development of Port Group and Regional Economy

    • 摘要: 港口作为各个国家间交流的桥梁以及重要的内外贸易口岸,是拉动地区经济发展的重要引擎,不同产业结构对区域经济的影响存在差异,不同产业结构与港口经济的内在关系也有差异。以发展中国家和发达国家的港口群为例,发展中国家选取中国环渤海湾、长三角、粤港澳港口群为研究对象;发达国家选取日本东京湾、美国纽约湾港口群为研究对象,运用灰色关联度模型确定货物吞吐量和相关区域经济指标之间的关联度,运用VAR模型对港口和区域经济协同发展情况进行分析。研究结果表明,侧重不同产业链的港口群与区域经济的关联度和协同性不同。从发展规律来看,到一定阶段后,中国港口未来货物吞吐量增速将会放缓,政府和港口企业需准确预判并采取适当措施来协调港口与区域经济之间的发展关系,最后提出相应的政策建议,以供同人参考。

       

      Abstract: Port Groups (Bohai Bay port group, the Yangtze River Delta port group, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area port group) in China, a developing country and the port groups (Tokyo Bay port group in Japan and Upper New York Bay port group in USA) in developed countries are investigated. The relevancy of cargo throughput of ports to regional economic indicator is evaluated by means of a grey relevance model and the synergy development of ports and regional economy is evaluated by means of the VAR model. The research shows that the relevance of ports to regional economy and the synergy benefits are different for port groups oriented to different supply train. The rule of economic development tells us that the growth rate of port throughput will go down eventually, so, to watch the situation development and adapt policy accordingly is important.

       

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