基于POLARIS的北极东北航道通航窗口研究
Study on Navigable Window Navigating Through Arctic Northeast Passage Based on POLARIS
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摘要: 北极水域复杂的海冰冰情严重影响着北极东北航道的可通航性,不同冰级的船舶在不同冰情的水域航行时面临不同的航行风险,导致通航条件不同,相应可通航的窗口期也不相同。研究基于国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization, IMO)提出的极地操作限制评估风险指数系统(Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System, POLARIS),利用2011-2020年的北极海冰冰情数据结合“永盛”轮船舶冰级,计算北极水域风险指数结果(Risk Index Outcome, RIO)和“永盛”轮首航北极东北航道的航线RIO,确定北极东北航道不同通航条件航段占比,提取2011-2020年该冰级船舶可安全航行的航道通航窗口。结果表明:北极东北航道近10 a平均通航起始日为8月30日,通航结束日为11月16日,平均通航期为79 d。研究分析各年接近通航周的通航受限航段,识别了影响北极东北航道通航窗口的关键水域。有关研究方法和结果可为不同冰级船舶结合航线冰情制定航行计划以及船公司根据船舶冰级合理安排船期提供参考和支持。Abstract: Navigability of the Arctic passage is highly affected by the complex sea ice conditions and the navigational risk level is different for ships of different ice classification notation. This situation suggests that special navigable window should be decided for particular type of ships. The POLARIS (Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System) proposed by IMO (International Maritime Organization) is studied. The RIO (Risk Index Outcome) for Ship Yongsheng's first voyage through the Arctic Northeast Passage is calculated based on the ship's ice classification notation and the ice condition data of the Arctic waters in 2011~2020. The navigational condition of each passage segment is studied and the navigable widow for the ship is decided. The calculation indicates that for the past decade the navigable period started on August 30 and ended on November 16, 79 days in average. The method here can be used by shipping companies in planning voyages for ships with different ice classification notations.