Abstract: In answering the needs of Poyang Lake water control project in design and deploying anti-collision facilities, navigational aids and warning marks, the ship out of control and drifting in the area of the project is modeled and the probability of such a ship hitting the project facilities is estimated. The facility arrangement of the area is investigated and the model is developed based on the ship drifting motion equations and Monte Carlo method. The spatial distribution of the ship drifting trajectory is calculated and the probabilities of the ship out of control in typical working conditions colliding the water-control facilities are estimated accurately. Python programming is accomplished and the collision probability calculation is performed. The calculation shows that in the area from 1 km out of downstream approach to the water control project area to 1 km out of upstream approach of the area, the probability of colliding any water control facility is 7-13 times per thousand years.