珠江口船舶引航风险态势未确知测度评估

    Assessment of risk situation for piloting a ship through the Pearl River Estuary involving unascertained measurement

    • 摘要: 为保障珠江口大型船舶安全引航,针对大型船舶进港过程中的高风险航段进行管控是非常必要的。通过对港口水域引航风险影响因素分析,引入未确知测度数学模型,采用Copula函数测量风险因素之间的权重关系,建立基于未确知测度的港口水域引航风险评估模型。结合大型船舶的实际进港多个场景,对珠江口引航过程进行量化评估,揭示相对显著的重要航段引航作业风险态势特征。实例验证表明:大型船舶在珠江口进港引航中,船舶在引航中后段的风险程度为中等;潮流是影响船舶引航风险态势的关键因素之一。

       

      Abstract: The influencing factors of risks that associated with piloting a ship in port are analyzed and their unascertained measurement model of the factors are identified. Copula function is used to weigh the risk factors and a risk assessment model involving the factors with uncertainty is built. Particularly, the process of piloting a ship through the Pearl River Estuary is quantitatively studied through analyzing several scenarios. Relatively significant situation features of pilotage operation are identified and risk assessment is conducted. The results are examined against practical pilotage processes and proved. The research shows that the risk level in middle-late stages of piloting a ship through the pearl river estuary is medium and tide is the critical factor influencing the risk situation.

       

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