基于Lotka-Volterra模型航运单元共生模式及动态演化分析

    Analysis on symbiosis model and dynamic evolution of shipping units based on Lotka-Volterra model

    • 摘要: 为更深入的探索航运集群内部航运单元间的相互关系,了解港口与高端航运服务的相互作用。基于共生理论采用Lotka-Volterra模型对航运集群内港口与航运保险、航运经纪等航运单元的共生模式及动态演化进行分析。以广州为例进行定量实证分析,显示现阶段广州港与航运保险、广州港与航运经纪互惠共生,都在扩增阶段。航运保险和航运经纪等高端航运服务受益于广州港的发展。现阶段港口在广州航运集群的发展中起主导作用。当航运集群升级为以高端航运服务为核心竞争力时,港口的作用将发生变化。该研究为制定航运集群动态发展路径提供数据支撑和决策依据,为高端航运服务未来发展方向提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The symbiosis relations between ports and shipping insurance services, ports and shipping brokers in a shipping cluster and their dynamic evolution are analyzed by means of Lotka-Volterra model. The situation in Guangzhou is investigated in particular for illustration. The research shows that the mutualistic symbiosis of those units has been developing. Shipping insurance services and shipping brokers, as high-end shipping services, have benefited from the development of Guangzhou Port. The development of the port has been the driving force of the shipping cluster. As the shipping cluster upgrades and those high-end shipping services become its core competitive power, the roles of ports will change. This research provides some clues for port management.

       

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