Research on the experimental features and characteristics of speed dispersion in vessel traffic flow
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摘要: 为更深刻地理解船舶交通流运行特性，以速度离散度研究为切入点，提出描述船舶交通流速度离散特性的两种指标，根据交通流基本图理论，对速度离散度在船舶交通流基本图上的分布及其与船舶交通流三参数之间的关系进行定量分析。结果表明：随着船舶流量、密度和速度的增加，速度离散度的分布趋于稳定，在低流量、高速度离散度区间内，速度离散度随着船舶流量的增加逐渐降低，在低速度离散度区间内，速度离散度随着船舶流量增加逐渐升高；基于改进的K-means-FCM算法，使用船舶交通流流量、密度、速度和速度离散度作为分类指标，对船舶交通流进行聚类分析，得到4个聚类中心与指标值的分布范围。基于试验结果，抽象总结船舶交通流运行状态图，将船舶交通流划分自由态、同质态、稳定态和异质态等4种状态。该研究对更好地认识船舶交通流特性起到一定的作用。Abstract: In order to understand the operation characteristics of vessel traffic flow more deeply, taking the study of speed dispersion as the entry point, this paper proposes two kinds of indexes to describe the speed dispersion characteristics of vessel traffic flow. According to the theory of traffic flow fundamental diagram, this paper quantitatively analyzes the distribution of speed dispersion on the fundamental diagram of vessel traffic flow and its relationship with the three parameters of vessel traffic flow. The results show that the distribution of speed dispersion tends to be stable with the increase of ship flow, density and velocity. The speed dispersion gradually decreases with the increase of ship flow in the low and high speed dispersion range, and increases with the increase of ship flow in the low speed dispersion range. The improved K-means and FCM（Fuzzy C-means） algorithm are applied to do the cluster analysis for VTF condition. In the end, four substates of VTF condition are proposed: stochastic state, equilibrium state, tradition state and nonequilibrium state. This research plays a role in better understanding the characteristics of vessel traffic flow.
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