基于系统动力学的重庆港口群集疏运系统仿真研究

    Simulation research on Chongqing port cluster collection and distribution system based on system dynamics

    • 摘要: 为探究重庆港口群集疏运系统的发展情况,促进重庆市港口群发展的正向循环,通过重庆港口群之间的各项因素构建了重庆港口群集疏运系统的系统动力学模型。根据模型的因果关系图和动力学流图,通过参数的回归分析以及状态方程的构建得到模型子构造之间、系统要素之间的定性和定量关系,运用Vensim软件进行模拟。通过与实际情况的集疏运系统进行对比检验,分析和验证了模型的有效性和一致性。最后通过对重庆港口群各类型的集疏运方式进行仿真模拟,得出重庆港需加强发展铁路和水路集疏运的结论,为重庆港未来集疏运发展指明方向。

       

      Abstract: In order to explore the development of Chongqing port cluster transportation system and promote the positive cycle of Chongqing port cluster development, the system dynamics model of Chongqing port cluster transportation system is constructed through various factors among Chongqing port clusters. According to the causality diagram and dynamic flow diagram of the model, the qualitative and quantitative relationships between the sub-structures of the model and the system elements are obtained through the regression analysis of parameters and the construction of state equation. The Vensim software is used to simulate, and the validity and consistency of the model are analyzed and verified by comparing with the actual collection and distribution system. Finally, through the simulation of various collection and distribution modes of Chongqing port group, it is concluded that Chongqing port needs to strengthen the development of railway and waterway collection and distribution, which points out the direction for the future development of Chongqing port.

       

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