Abstract: In order to better grasp the fluctuation law of freight index of C3 and C5 routes and reduce the risk of trade and investment of shipping operators and investors, a short-term freight rate regression model is established based on AIS data. On the basis of ship capacity and oil price, regional capacity is proposed as a new factor affecting route freight rates, and multiple linear stepwise regression method is used to conduct regression analysis on C3 and C5 routes freight rates without and with regional factors respectively. The example verification shows that the fitting degree of C3 and C5 short-term freight rate regression models with regional factors is 0.072 and 0.071 higher than that without regional factors, respectively. The effect of short-term prediction is better, which can provide certain decision support for shipping operators.