基于XGBoost算法的船舶油耗预测模型

    Ship fuel consumption prediction model based on XGBoost algorithm

    • 摘要: 船舶油耗预测是实现船舶能效评估与优化决策的基础与前提,对船舶航线航速设计,实现船舶能效优化有重要的意义。基于船舶实测航行数据和环境数据,通过相关性分析提取对船舶油耗影响较大的特征因素,并将特征因素作为模型的输入参数;通过数据清理技术并参照相关国际标准对特征因素进行筛选,得到建模的样本数据;把样本数据按0.8∶0.2的比例随机分为训练样本和测试样本,采用XGBoost算法建立油耗预测模型,并通过预测测试样本的油耗验证模型的准确性。该模型决定系数达到0.967,运行时间为2.723 s,与神经网络模型的准确率几乎一致且运行时间缩短了70%,适用于船舶航行决策中的油耗快速计算和实时预测。

       

      Abstract: Ship energy consumption prediction is the basis and premise for ship energy efficiency assessment and optimization decision-making, which is of great significance for ship route speed design and ship energy efficiency optimization. Firstly, based on the ship's actual navigation records and environmental data, the characteristic factors which have a great influence on ship fuel consumption are extracted through correlation analysis, and these characteristic factors are taken as the input parameters of the model. Then, by filtering these characteristic factors based on data cleaning technology and relevant international standards, the sample data for modeling are obtained; and they are randomly divided into training and test samples according to the ratio of 0.8∶0.2. Then, the fuel consumption prediction model for the training samples is built based on XGBoost algorithm, and its accuracy is verified by the comparation of predictive value and true value of the test samples. Finally, the proposed model is compared with the neural network models, it is found that its decision coefficient can reach 0.967 and the running time is 2.723 seconds, the accuracy is almost the same as the neural network model but the running time is shortened by 70%. Therefore, the algorithm proposed in this paper is suitable for fast calculation of fuel consumption and real-time prediction of energy consumption in ship navigation.

       

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