政府监管下船舶转用清洁能源趋势研究

    Research on the trend of clean energy conversion under government supervision

    • 摘要: 为应对全球范围内日益严苛的环保要求和强制性减排法规的实施,节能减排逐渐成为船舶行业发展的主流方向。由此,推进船舶清洁能源建设尤为重要。研究中假定双方有限理性,构建政府、船方演化博弈模型,对双方主体的行为进行仿真分析。结果表明,在静态博弈中,双方博弈主体的策略互相影响,根据自身收益变化不断调整,无法达到稳定均衡状态;政府改变策略,引入根据概率变化的奖惩机制,得到动态优化策略,通过Vensim软件仿真双方博弈过程,找到系统的Nash稳定均衡点,博弈结果收敛,达到稳定状态。因此,建议优化双方主体协调机制,重视船舶积极开发和转用清洁能源得利,建立系统的奖惩机制,保护海洋环境,实现人海和谐共生。

       

      Abstract: In response to the increasingly stringent environmental requirements and the implementation of mandatory emission reduction regulations worldwide, energy conservation and emission reduction have gradually become the mainstream direction of the ship industry development. Therefore, it is particularly important to promote the construction of ship clean energy. In the study, assuming the limited rationality of both parties, this paper constructs the government and ship evolution game model, and analyzes the behavior of both parties by simulation. The results show that in a static game, the strategies of the two game players influence each other and constantly adjust according to their own returns, which cannot reach a stable equilibrium state. Assuming the government changes the strategy, this paper introduces the reward and punishment mechanism according to the probability change, and obtains the dynamic optimization strategy, the dynamic optimization strategy is obtained, and the two-player game process is simulated by the Vensim, finding the Nash stable equilibrium point of the system, and the game results converge and reach a steady state. Therefore, it is recommended that the coordination mechanism between the two main parties be optimized, that importance be attached to the benefits of the active development and conversion of ships to clean energy, and that a systematic mechanism of incentives and penalties be established in order to protect the marine environment and achieve a harmonious coexistence between mankind and the sea.

       

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