Abstract:
As an important component of the waterway transportation system,Ro-Ro passenger ship transportation plays a significant role in inland river,coastal,and even cross-strait transport services. In recent years,collisions involving Ro-Ro passenger ships have occurred from time to time. To mitigate the losses caused by such accidents,this paper proposes an emergency decision-making model for Ro-Ro passenger ship collisions based on a fuzzy Bayesian network. The identified emergency decision variables for Ro Pax ship collisions are fuzzified by introducing fuzzy logic. Combined with improved IFTHEN rules,confidence rule bases are established and then converted into a conditional probability table,thereby constructing a complete Bayesian network inference structure. Ultimately,the optimal emergency decision scheme is determined through utility value evaluation. The results demonstrate that the proposed emergency decision-making model is effective and feasible,aligning with practical application requirements. This study provides ship decision-makers with a reference basis for emergency response in the event of a Ro Pax ship collision.