双循环视角下上海国际航运中心港航扩能提升

    Shanghai International Shipping Center’s port and shipping capacity enhancement from the perspective of Dual Circulation

    • 摘要: 在新发展格局构建的战略背景下,长江经济带是联通国内国际双循环的关键枢纽,而上海港口作为长江经济带的龙头港口与核心节点,其基础设施的战略支撑作用愈发凸显。上海国际航运中心作为我国航运业的核心载体,其服务能级提升正面临空间资源约束的瓶颈。本文通过构建港口服务强度及等待概率模型、排队模型,系统评估港口运营效率,并结合不同系统容量下船舶损失率模型量化资源约束影响,同时对比国内外典型港口发展策略,剖析上海国际航运中心发展面临的核心问题。模型分析表明,港口服务需求与空间资源供给之间的结构性矛盾已成为制约其高质量发展的关键因素。若未来能进一步推进港航资源扩能升级,优化空间资源配置条件,上海国际航运中心将有效释放江海直转运输优势,显著提升港口服务能级与长江黄金水道通航效能,降低全社会物流综合成本。这一发展路径不仅有助于推动航运业绿色转型与数智化升级,更能强化国家供应链安全保障能力,扩大高水平对外开放,为上海国际航运中心实现长远可持续发展奠定坚实基础。

       

      Abstract: To foster a new development paradigm,the Yangtze River Economic Belt serves as a crucial hub connecting the domestic and international circulations. As the leading port and core node of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,Shanghai Port’s strategic role as one of the most critical infrastructure has become increasingly prominent. The Shanghai International Shipping Center is facing a bottleneck of spatial resource constraints in upgrading its service capacity. This paper evaluates port operational efficiency by constructing models for port service intensity,waiting probability,and queuing theory. It quantifies the impact of resource constraints using a ship loss rate model under different system capacities,while comparing development strategies of typical domestic and foreign ports to analyze the core challenges confronting the Shanghai International Shipping Center. Model analysis indicates that the structural contradiction between port service demand and spatial resource supply has become a key constraint on its high-quality development. Looking ahead,the expansion and upgrading of port-shipping resources and optimizing spatial resource allocation will enable the Shanghai International Shipping Center to effectively unleash the advantages of direct river-sea transportation,significantly improve port service capacity and the navigation efficiency of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway,and reduce the comprehensive logistics costs of the whole society. This development path will not only promote the green transformation and digital-intelligent upgrading of the shipping industry but also strengthen the country’s supply chain security and expand high-level opening-up,laying a solid foundation for the long-term and sustainable development of the Shanghai International Shipping Center.

       

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