基于二次分解和算法优化LSTM的港口集装箱吞吐量预测研究

    Research on port container throughput forecasting based on secondary decomposition and LSTM optimized by algorithm

    • 摘要: 准确预测港口集装箱吞吐量对港口航运企业和政府管理部门科学制定决策具有重要意义。目前的研究方法对短历时港口集装箱吞吐量的关注较少,对非线性、非平稳的波动序列的预测准确性有限。本文以上海港集装箱吞吐量为分析与预测对象,研究提出了基于以相关系数分析为基础的变分模态分解(CCVMD)和季节趋势分解(STL)的二次分解的新型深度学习模型:以相关系数为参照,对原始时间序列进行变分模态分解,在此基础上二次分解为季节项、趋势项和不规则项,并用算法优化的长短期记忆神经网络分别对分解项进行预测,汇总得到最终预测结果。结果表明:在集装箱吞吐量预测中,对数据进行预处理的分解组合模型表现显著优于其他模型;本文提出的模型的平均绝对百分比误差为0.021 703,均方根误差百分比为0.026 852,平均绝对误差百分比为0.022 14,预测整体表现优于其余12种比较模型和既往研究提出的部分模型;二次分解预处理在追踪极值、除噪降噪和可解释性方面更具可靠性。

       

      Abstract: Accurate forecasting of port container throughput is of great significance for port operators and government administrations in making scientific decisions. Existing forecasting methods,however,often pay insufficient attention to short-calendar-time PCT and exhibit limited accuracy in handling nonlinear and non-stationary fluctuation series. This paper takes the container throughput of Shanghai Port as the research object and proposes a novel deep learning model based on secondary decomposition using CCVMD and STL. Using the correlation coefficient as a reference,variational mode decomposition is first applied to the original time series. Subsequently,a secondary decomposition divides the data into seasonal,trend,and residual components. An algorithm-optimized long short-term memory neural network is then employed to predict each component separately,and the final prediction results are aggregated. Experimental results show that the combined decomposition model with data preprocessing significantly outperforms other models in PCT forecasting. The proposed model achieves a mean absolute percentage error of 0. 021 703,a root mean square error percentage of 0. 026852,and a mean absolute error percentage of 0. 022 14,indicating superior overall performance compared to 12 benchmark models and several models from prior studies. Furthermore,the secondary decomposition approach demonstrates enhanced reliability in tracking extreme values,removing and reducing noise,and improving interpretability.

       

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