面向北极冰区船舶溢油事故的应急物资调度优化

    Multi-objective optimization of emergency material scheduling for ship oil spills in Arctic ice-covered waters

    • 摘要: 随着北极航道通航日趋频繁,船舶溢油事故风险显著增加。北极冰区环境具有海冰动态变化、溢油扩散路径复杂、应急窗口受限等特点,使传统调度方法难以在时效、成本与生态目标间实现有效平衡。对此本研究提出一种融合动态环境建模与改进多目标粒子群优化(IMOPSO)算法的应急物资调度方法。首先,构建了同时最小化应急响应时间、总调度成本与生态风险的优化模型,该模型耦合了动态海冰与溢油扩散过程。其次,对算法进行三项核心改进:采用环境自适应机制动态调整参数,以平衡全局探索与局部开发能力;引入外部档案维护策略,提升解集多样性与分布性;设计混合变异算子,融合高斯与柯西变异优势,增强算法逃离局部最优的能力。为验证方法有效性,以北极某典型航道溢油事故为例进行仿真,并与经典非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)对比。结果表明,该算法在综合质量指标(超体积)上较NSGA-Ⅱ提升18.3%,在分布性指标(反世代距离)上提升33.3%,所得调度方案在3个目标上均实现更优均衡。消融试验验证了各改进策略的有效性,敏感性分析进一步表明该方法在不同环境参数波动下具有良好鲁棒性,本研究可为北极冰区复杂动态环境下的船舶溢油应急提供有效决策参考。

       

      Abstract: Increasing shipping activity along Arctic routes has raised the risk of ship-source oil spills, while dynamic sea-ice conditions, complex oil-spill transport, and narrow emergency-response windows pose substantial challenges to conventional resource-scheduling approaches. This study proposes an emergency material scheduling framework that integrates dynamic environmental modeling with an improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization (IMOPSO) algorithm. A multi-objective optimization model is first formulated to simultaneously minimize emergency response time, total scheduling cost, and ecological risk while accounting for the dynamic evolution of sea ice and oil-spill dispersion. The conventional MOPSO algorithm is then enhanced through three mechanisms: an environmentally adaptive parameter-adjustment strategy to balance global exploration and local exploitation, an external archive maintenance strategy to improve the diversity and distribution of Pareto-optimal solutions, and a hybrid mutation operator combining Gaussian and Cauchy mutations to reduce premature convergence. A representative Arctic oil-spill scenario is simulated to evaluate the proposed method against the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ (NSGA-Ⅱ). The results show that the proposed IMOPSO improves the hypervolume metric by 18.3% and the inverted generational distance metric by 33.3% relative to NSGA-Ⅱ, while achieving a more balanced trade-off among response time, economic cost, and ecological risk. Ablation experiments confirm the contribution of the individual algorithmic enhancements, and sensitivity analysis demonstrates robust performance under variations in environmental parameters. The proposed framework provides a quantitative decision-support approach for emergency resource allocation and response planning for ship-source oil spills in dynamic Arctic ice-covered waters.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回