基于多方法融合的极地邮轮设备总体参数配置方案评估研究

General Parameter Evaluation Concerning Equipment Configuration for Polar Cruise with Combination of Multiple Methods

摘要: 针对极地邮轮设备总体参数配置方案评估多属性决策问题，建立了相关的评估模型，提出了一种基于主客观组合权重下多方法融合的评估方法。该方法首先利用层次分析法与熵权法计算各指标的主观和客观权重，并将两种权重进行组合；然后利用TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)与灰关联评估分别进行选型方案评估，并使用证据理论对两者的评估结果进行融合。基于敏感度分析，发现这种主客观权重融合的方法具有更好的稳定性。对实际选型案例进行了偏好反转分析，分析结果表明基于多方法融合的评估方法较之于单一的评估方法具有更小的排序波动。因此，所提出极地邮轮设备总体参数配置方案评估方法具有较强的可靠性，在多属性决策问题中具有一定的指导意义。

Abstract: EWM and AHP are used to calculate the subjective and objective weights of indexes respectively and the results are combined.The equipment selection scheme is evaluated by TOPSIS and Grey Relational Analysis repectively and the results are fused with D-S theory.The sensitivity analysis is performed to prove the advantage in stability of the objective-subjective weight fusing.The preference reversal is examined for an actual case.