基于边际减排成本的集装箱船碳中和路径和碳价影响分析

    Analysis of carbon neutral pathway and carbon price of container ships based on marginal abatement cost

    • 摘要: 为研究集装箱单船碳中和路径,以及分析碳价对碳中和路径的影响,文章以一艘拟建的12 000 TEU集装箱船为研究对象,采用边际减排成本理论评估方法,基于三型方案开展技术措施、营运措施和替代燃料组合的单船碳中和路径研究,分析边际减排成本与碳价之间的关系。结果表明:技术措施与营运措施的组合可实现约28.62%的减排;大多数技术措施和营运措施具有成本效益;随着碳价升高到有限值,甲醇双燃料和氨双燃料两种船型的后期额外成本也逐渐具有经济性;单靠碳税难以实现2050年碳中和;氨双燃料船具备和甲醇双燃料船商业竞争的潜力。

       

      Abstract: In order to study the carbon neutral path of a container single ship, as well as to analyze the influence of carbon price on the carbon neutral path, this paper takes a proposed 12 000 TEU container ship as the research object, adopts the theoretical assessment method of marginal abatement cost, and carries out the research on the carbon neutral path of a single ship with a combination of technological measures, operational measures and alternative fuels based on a three-type scheme, and analyzes the relationship between marginal abatement cost and carbon price. The results show that: the combination of technical measures and operational measures can achieve about 28.62% emission reduction; most technical and operational measures are cost-effective; with the carbon price increasing to a given value, the later additional costs of methanol and ammonia dual fueled ships is gradually becoming economical; carbon taxes alone cannot achieve carbon neutrality by 2050; ammonia dual fueled ships have the potential to compete commercially with methanol dual fueled ships.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回