基于改进LSTM的波浪作用下船舶操纵运动在线预报方法研究
Online prediction method of ship maneuvering motion under wave influence based on improved LSTM neural network
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摘要: 针对波浪等环境扰动导致的船舶操纵运动预报模型实时性不足与长周期精度下降等问题,提出一种基于改进长短时记忆(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)神经网络的船舶操纵运动在线预报方法。以多层LSTM为核心,通过嵌入的滑动窗口结构,实时计算窗口内误差指标,当窗口平均误差超过设定阈值时触发模型训练更新,从而达到适时更新的在线预报目的。试验结果表明:与离线预报相比,在线预报方法在波浪工况不断切换的长周期工况下仍能保持稳定的预报精度;在相同窗口长度下,采用更严格阈值设置的在线预报方法的均方根误差(RMSE)结果最高改善达56.85%,同时累计更新时间仅为3.82 s。所提出的在线预报方法在船舶操纵运动的长期预报工作中能实现良好的预报效果,对复杂海况下船舶操纵运动的长周期精确预报工作具有一定的应用价值。Abstract: To address the insufficient real-time capability and long-horizon accuracy degradation of ship maneuvering motion prediction under environmental disturbances such as waves, an online prediction method based on an improved Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is proposed. A multi-layer LSTM is adopted as the core predictor, and an embedded sliding-window structure is introduced to compute the error metrics within the window in real time. When the window-averaged error exceeds a preset threshold, model retraining and updating are triggered, thereby achieving timely online prediction. The results indicate that, compared with offline prediction, the proposed online method maintains stable prediction accuracy under long-horizon conditions with continuously switching wave states. With the same window length, the online method with a stricter threshold achieves a maximum RMSE improvement of 56.85%, while the cumulative update time is only 3.82 s. The proposed online prediction method delivers satisfactory long-horizon prediction performance for ship maneuvering motion and shows practical value for accurate long-horizon prediction under complex sea conditions.
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