考虑危险区域的救助基地选址与规模配置优化

    Optimization of rescue base location and scale configuration in high-risk area

    • 摘要: 随着海运事业的快速发展,海上突发事故呈现频次增加与影响范围扩大的趋势。仅依赖事后的救援调度,会出现响应时间过长与调度成本高昂等问题。为提升海上应急能力,提出一种基于危险区域的海上救助基地选址与规模优化方法。考虑水域风险因素对航行安全的影响,建立基于地理信息系统和随机森林的事故分析框架,以确定危险区域;引入模糊综合评价方法计算外部干扰因素对备选点的影响权重;以最大化海域覆盖率和最小化配置成本为目标,建立考虑岛礁支撑作用的救助基地选址与配置模型,并基于衍生策略和共享机制设计了改进的多目标粒子群算法求解模型。以南海为例的数值试验结果表明,相较于NSGA-Ⅱ与标准多目标粒子群算法,所提算法在Pareto解集均匀性、多样性、非劣解数量及求解时间等指标上表现更优,综合提升幅度为28.88%~84.82%。敏感性分析显示,覆盖率与成本目标均对响应时间和备选点数量具有显著敏感性,决策者需在救援时效与建设投入之间进行权衡。与南海现有配置方案对比,优化方案可将配置成本降低13.22%,海域覆盖率提高11.98%,验证了所提方法的有效性与工程适用性。

       

      Abstract: With the rapid development of the maritime shipping industry, maritime emergencies show an increasing frequency and an expanding impact range. When only post-incident rescue dispatching is relied on, excessive response time and high dispatching cost are caused. To enhance maritime emergency capability, an optimization method for rescue-base location and scale configuration in high-risk areas was proposed. First, the impact of maritime risk factors on navigation safety was considered, and an accident analysis framework based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and random forest was established to determine high-risk areas; then, the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method (FCEM) was introduced to calculate the comprehensive impact index of interference factors on candidate locations for rescue bases. Finally, considering the supportive role of islands, a rescue equipment location and configuration model was developed with the objective of maximizing area coverage while minimizing configuration cost, and an improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization (IMOPSO) algorithm incorporating a derivation strategy and a sharing mechanism was designed to solve the model. Numerical experiment results for the South China Sea show that, compared with NSGA-Ⅱ and the standard multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MPOSO) algorithm, the proposed algorithm performs better in the uniformity and diversity of the Pareto solution set, the number of non-dominated solutions, and the solution time, with an overall improvement of 28.88%~84.82%. Sensitivity analysis shows that both the coverage objective and the cost objective are significantly sensitive to response time and the number of candidate sites, and a trade-off between rescue timeliness and construction investment is required. Compared with the existing configuration scheme in the South China Sea, the optimized scheme reduces configuration cost by 13.22% and increases sea-area coverage by 11.98%, and the effectiveness and engineering applicability of the proposed method is validated.

       

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