Abstract:
To enhance the safety and efficiency of maritime route planning, this study proposes a hybrid clustering method integrating multiple algorithms to evaluate the impact of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific. Firstly, using tropical cyclone data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), we characterize genesis patterns, intensity variations, and track features of tropical cyclones from 1924 to 2023. Secondly, the K-means clustering algorithm is employed to analyze spatiotemporal distribution, movement speed and direction, while a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is used to identify hotspot regions and high-frequency activity belts. Finally, to overcome the limitations of two-dimensional clustering, we propose a hybrid clustering approach combining 2D and 3D clustering analyses. By overlaying tropical cyclone tracks with major shipping routes, we reveal their potential impacts on maritime safety. Experimental results demonstrate that tropical cyclones primarily affect latitudes between 10°N and 25°N, with seasonal variations: cyclones are generally weaker and more localized in winter-spring, whereas typhoons are stronger and more frequent in summer-autumn. In terms of movement direction, low-latitude cyclones initially move westward from east and then recurve northward near 15°N, while high-latitude cyclones move westward before turning northeastward. The hybrid clustering method effectively identifies tropical cyclone risk zones, providing critical references for shipping route planning and risk management.