Abstract: With the continuous advancement of the national dual-carbon goals,ports and their collection and distribution systems are facing increasing pressure for low carbon transformation,which has placed new requirements on their adaptive relationship. To better promote the sustainable and coordinated development of both systems,an adaptive evaluation index system for container ports and road,rail,water collection and distribution modes was established from a low-carbon perspective. A super-efficiency SBM-DEA model considering undesirable outputs is adopted to calculate the adaptive efficiency of each mode,and the ARIMA model is used to forecast adaptability. To further analyze the influence of low-carbon development on adaptability,different carbon emission reduction scenarios are established,and the efficiency values and carbon emissions of road,railway,and waterway transport modes under different scenarios are calculated and compared. Finally,a composite system coordination degree model is applied to analyze the dynamic development trend of adaptability. The Ningbo Port area is selected as the case to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the method. The results are generally consistent with the current development status of collection and distribution in the Ningbo Port area,demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed method. This method can provide a reference for research on the adaptability between ports and collection and distribution systems.