欧盟海运碳减排政策下中国海运企业最优应对策略:基于NSGA-Ⅱ的多目标鲁棒优化研究

    Optimal response strategy of Chinese shipping enterprises under the EU shipping carbon emission reduction policy: research on multi-objective robust optimization based on NSGA-Ⅱ

    • 摘要: 随着欧盟碳排放交易体系(EU ETS)与欧盟海运燃料条例(Fuel EU)相继实施,对中国海运企业构成了碳排放双重约束,使其在中欧航线运营中亟需寻求需兼顾合规与经济效益的最优策略。针对现有研究忽视关键参数不确定性、未能整合多维决策的局限,本文构建了一种基于NSGA-Ⅱ的多目标鲁棒优化模型。首先,融合全生命周期成本分析与灰色关联度评价法,从4种替代燃料中筛选出液化天然气(LNG)作为当前最具成本—减排综合效益的过渡燃料。其次,以亚欧航线20 000TEU集装箱船为研究对象,构建考虑EUA、LNG和柴油价格不确定性的多目标鲁棒优化模型。该模型引入预算保守度参数以控制不确定性波动,并协同优化LNG替代比例、航速、中转港数量及技术更新方案,旨在最小化年度总合规成本与欧盟水域内的碳排放量。基于四条典型中欧集装箱航线的实证分析,本文识别出三类典型策略:成本优先(LNG替代比例92%、航速18.26 kn、无中转港、不进行技术更新)、减排优先(LNG替代比例98%、航速12.00 kn、2个中转港、进行技术更新)以及综合最优(LNG替代比例95%、航速14.76kn、1个中转港、不进行技术更新)。研究表明,LNG能有效平衡成本与减排目标,且总合规成本与碳排放量间存在显著权衡关系,边际减排成本随减排力度增大而递增。最后,本文提出了“短期LNG替代—中期航速与航线优化—长期多元燃料布局”的分阶段策略体系,为中国海运企业应对欧盟新政提供了理论依据与实践路径。

       

      Abstract: With the implementation of the EU ETS and the European Union Maritime Fuels Regulation (Fuel EU),dual carbon constraints have been on Chinese shipping companies,making it urgent to seek the optimal strategy that balances compliance and economic benefits in the operation of China-Europe routes. To address the limitations of existing studies,which ignore the uncertainty of key parameters and failto integrate multi-dimensional decisions,a multi-objective robust optimization model based on NSGA-Ⅱ is constructed. Firstly,integrating life cycle cost analysis and grey relational analysis,LNG is selected from four alternative fuels as the transition fuel with the most cost-emission reduction comprehensive benefits. Secondly,taking the 20,000 TEU container ship on the Asia-Europe route as the research object,a multi-objective robust optimization model considering the price uncertainty of EUA,LNG and diesel is constructed. The model introduces budget conservatism parameters to control uncertainty fluctuations,and synergistically optimizes the LNG substitution ratio,vessel speed,number of transit ports,and technology renewal plans,aiming to minimize the total annual compliance cost and carbon emissions in EU waters. Based on the empirical analysis of four typical China-Europe container routes,this paper identifies three types of typical strategies: cost priority (LNG substitution ratio 92%,speed 18. 26 knots,no transit port,no technology update),emission reduction priority (LNG substitution ratio 98%,speed 12. 00 knots,2 transit ports,technology update) and comprehensive optimization (LNG substitution ratio 95%,speed 14. 76 knots,1 transit port,no technology update). The results show that LNG can effectively balance costs and emission reduction targets,and there is a significant trade-off between total compliance costs and carbon emissions,and the marginal emission reduction cost increases with the increase of emission reduction efforts. Finally,this paper proposes a phased strategy system of " short-term LNG substitution,medium-term speed and route optimization,and long-term diversified fuel layout",which provides a theoretical basis and practical path for Chinese shipping enterprises to cope with the new EU policy.

       

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