上海港靠港船舶减排路径环境绩效与经济性评估

    Environmental performance and economic viability assessment of emission reduction pathways for ships calling at Shanghai Port

    • 摘要: 为评估上海港靠港船舶减排技术应用潜力,基于自动识别系统(AIS)数据与船型参数,采用自下而上方法构建辅机和锅炉排放清单,并设置0.1%ULSFO、LNG、非液货船岸电和全船型岸电四类情景。结果表明,LNG对各污染物削减最全面;全船型岸电对港区内非碳污染物减排率超过80%,但碳减排受操作效率和电网碳排放因子约束; 0.1%ULSFO主要削减SOx和PM2.5。成本收益分析显示,NOx减排贡献的社会收益最大。当前市场条件下,补贴是影响技术经济性的关键因素,仅全船型岸电在享受大工业电价并满足操作和电网条件时接近盈亏平衡;0.1%ULSFO因成本高、收益有限,经济性最弱。本研究可为港口差异化减排决策提供依据。

       

      Abstract: To assess the application potential of emission reduction technologies for ships calling at Shanghai Port,this study develops a bottom-up at-berth emissions inventory for auxiliary engines and boilers based on AIS data and vessel characteristics. Four scenarios are evaluated: 0.1% ULSFO,LNG fuel,shore power for non-tanker vessels,and shore power for all vessel types. The results show that LNG provides the most comprehensive pollutant reductions. Shore power for all vessel types reduces in-port non-carbon pollutants by over 80%,but its carbon mitigation effect is constrained by operational efficiency and the grid carbon intensity. By contrast,0.1% ULSFO mainly reduces SOx and PM2. 5. The cost-benefit analysis indicates that NOx reduction contributes the largest share of social benefits. Under current market conditions,subsidies are the key determinant of technological economic viability. Only shore power for all vessel types approaches break-even when large-industrial electricity tariffs are available and operational and grid-related conditions are satisfied,whereas 0.1% ULSFO has the weakest economic performance due to its high cost and limited benefits. The findings can provide a basis for differentiated emission reduction decision-making in ports.

       

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