红海危机对集装箱海运网络拓扑特征及韧性的影响研究

    Impact of the Red Sea crisis on the resilience of the container shipping network

    • 摘要: 随着全球供应链一体化程度加深,集装箱海运网络在遭遇地缘政治冲突时面临严重的连通性中断与运输效率衰减风险。2023年爆发的红海危机严重干扰苏伊士运河的正常通行,迫使船舶大规模绕行好望角,延长了海运时间,增加了运输成本,直接影响了海运效率和供应链稳定性。现有海运网络韧性研究多采用静态拓扑指标,难以刻画关键节点失效后负载重分配所引发的级联失效过程,对突发事件非线性冲击的机理性建模尤为不足。针对上述问题,本文基于复杂网络理论与级联失效模型,构建亚非欧集装箱海运网络,评估红海危机对海运网络韧性的影响。研究基于负载-容量再分配模型,模拟不同攻击策略下的级联失效,并量化网络效率、最大连通子图等韧性指标。仿真表明:1)红海危机削弱沿线枢纽港口的连通性,东南亚港口中转能力增强;航线重组使得网络平均路径长度增加19.7%,集聚系数降低13.4%。2)级联失效仿真显示,蓄意攻击破坏性远超随机攻击,危机期间5%攻击比例下网络效率下降至30%,最大连通子图比例骤降至3.6%。3)不同节点容量参数分析显示,适度冗余可平衡连通性与运输效率。本研究揭示了地缘政治冲突对海运网络的非线性冲击机制,为优化网络韧性提供了数据支撑和理论参考。

       

      Abstract: As global supply chain integration deepens,container shipping networks face significant risks of connectivity disruption and transport efficiency degradation when encountering geopolitical conflicts. The outbreak of the Red Sea crisis in 2023 severely disrupted normal traffic through the Suez Canal,forcing large-scale vessel diversions via the Cape of Good Hope. This has extended shipping times,increased transportation costs,and directly impacted shipping efficiency and supply chain stability. Existing research on maritime network resilience predominantly relies on static topological indicators,which fail to capture the cascading failure processes triggered by load redistribution following critical node failures,and exhibit notable deficiencies in mechanistically modeling the nonlinear impacts of sudden-onset events. To address these limitations,this paper constructs a container shipping network for Asia,Africa,and Europe based on complex network theory and cascading failure models to assess the impact of the Red Sea crisis on maritime network resilience. The study employs a load-capacity redistribution model to simulate cascading failures under different attack strategies and quantifies resilience metrics such as network efficiency and the size of the largest connected component. Simulations reveal that: 1)The Red Sea crisis weakens the connectivity of pivotal hub ports along the affected route while enhancing the transshipment capacity of Southeast Asian ports; route restructuring increases the network's average path length by 19. 7% and reduces its clustering coefficient by 13. 4%. 2) Cascading failure simulations demonstrate that targeted attacks are substantially more destructive than random attacks. Under a 5% attack ratio during the crisis,network efficiency drops to 30%,and the proportion of the largest connected component plummets to 3. 6%. 3) Parameter analysis of different node capacity levels indicates that moderate redundancy can balance connectivity and transport efficiency. This study elucidates the nonlinear impact mechanisms of geopolitical conflicts on shipping networks,providing empirical data and a theoretical reference for optimizing network resilience.

       

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