船舶碳捕集与封存技术的经济性评估与前景分析

    Economic assessment and prospect analysis of onboard carbon capture and storage technology applications

    • 摘要: 国际航运业作为全球贸易的命脉,其碳排放量占全球总量的3%,是实现气候目标面临的严峻挑战。船舶碳捕集与封存(OCCS)技术,因其显著的减排潜力及与现有船舶的兼容性,被广泛视为推动航运业迈向净零排放的重要路径。本研究聚焦于OCCS技术的经济可行性,系统分析了其成本构成,揭示了初始资本支出与因捕集系统带来的额外燃料消耗是制约其推广的核心经济壁垒。通过对一艘MR型油轮的案例研究进行量化分析,结果显示,在特定条件下,OCCS系统的投资回收期为8.38年,初步验证了该技术在商业化应用上的经济潜力。进一步地,敏感性分析指出,碳税税率与CO2市场价格是投资回收周期的决定性变量,也是未来评估技术经济性时必须重点考量的不确定因素。基于此,本研究提出,OCCS的商业化落地无法单纯依赖技术成熟,必须构建政策引导、技术创新与市场机制三维协同的支撑体系。本研究通过实证数据为航运业从宏观脱碳战略向微观经济决策的转化提供了理论依据,填补了OCCS技术在具体船型应用中的量化评估空白。

       

      Abstract: As the lifeblood of global trade,the international shipping industry accounts for approximately 3% of global carbon emissions,posing a significant challenge to the achievement of climate targets. Onboard carbon capture and storage(OCCS) technology is widely regarded as an important pathway for the shipping industry to move toward net-zero emissions because of its substantial emission-reduction potential and compatibility with existing vessels. This study focuses on the economic feasibility of OCCS technology and systematically analyzes its cost structure. The results reveal that initial capital expenditure and the additional fuel consumption caused by the capture system are the major economic barriers limiting its large-scale adoption. A quantitative case study of a medium-range(MR) tanker shows that,under specific operating and market conditions,the investment payback period of the OCCS system is 8. 38 years,preliminarily demonstrating the economic potential of this technology for commercial application. Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis indicates that the carbon tax rate and the CO2 market price are the decisive variables affecting the payback period,as well as key uncertainties that should be emphasized in future techno-economic assessments. Based on these findings,this study suggests that the commercialization of OCCS cannot rely solely on technological maturity,but requires a coordinated support framework integrating policy guidance,technological innovation,and market mechanisms. By providing empirical data,this study offers an analytical basis for translating the shipping industry's macro-level decarbonization strategy into micro-level economic decision-making and helps fill the gap in quantitative assessments of OCCS applications for specific ship types.

       

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