基于WAVEWATCH Ⅲ在超强台风快速增强阶段的台风浪研究

    Typhoon-wave modeling during the rapid intensification stage of super typhoons using WAVEWATCH Ⅲ

    • 摘要: 随着航运业的蓬勃发展,为保障船舶的安全航行以及提高船舶的运营效率,对极端海况背景下的海浪精准模拟提出了更高要求。现有第三代海浪数值模式(WW3)在超强台风快速增强阶段的适用性和最佳模拟方案等方面仍存在不足,难以有效解决台风海事预警中,对超强台风快速增强阶段的台风浪精确模拟与浪灾风险精准定级的问题。针对上述问题,采用一种多维度敏感性分析的方法。首先,基于中国气象局所提供的西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集以及广东省海事局的船舶事故调查报告,获取了台风特征以及船舶事故信息。其次,基于WW3模式构建了高精度的台风浪模拟试验;在源项方案方面,采用了WW3模式当中常用的3种方案(ST2/ST4/ST6);在驱动风场方面,采用天气研究与预报模式、欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代全球气候大气再分析数据以及美国国家环境预报中心最终分析资料,以探究WW3模式的适用性与最佳模拟方案。并结合国家海洋局观测浮标及统计检验指标,形成完整的技术方案。在超强台风快速增强阶段的背景下,通过采用不同的源项方案与驱动风场进行WW3试验,并与观测浮标进行对比分析。结果表明:以天气预报模式(WRF)风场驱动,并采用ST2方案的试验在台风中心位置处的模拟效果更佳,其余区域ST4和ST6方案表现更佳。

       

      Abstract: With the vigorous growth of the shipping industry,ensuring navigational safety and improving operational efficiency have imposed higher demands on accurate wave simulations under extreme sea states. However,the applicability of the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ(WW3) and the identification of optimal simulation configurations during the rapid intensification stage of super typhoons remain insufficient,limiting its ability to address two key challenges in typhoon-related maritime early warning: accurate simulation of typhoon-generated waves during the rapid intensification stage and precise classification of wave-induced disaster risk. To tackle these issues,a multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis framework is employed. First,typhoon characteristics and ship-accident information are compiled using the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone best-track dataset provided by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) and vessel accident investigation reports from the Guangdong Maritime Safety Administration. Second,high-resolution typhoon-wave simulation experiments are established using WW3. For source-term parameterizations,three widely used WW3 schemes(ST2,ST4,and ST6) are adopted. For atmospheric forcing,wind fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the fifth-generation ECMWF global atmospheric reanalysis(ERA5),and the NCEP Final Analysis(NCEP-FNL) are used to examine WW3 performance and to determine the optimal simulation configuration.Combined with observations from National Oceanic Administration buoys and standard statistical validation metrics,a complete technical workflow is developed. Under rapid intensification conditions of super typhoons,WW3 experiments with different source-term schemes and wind forcing fields are conducted and evaluated against buoy measurements. The results indicate that simulations driven by WRF winds and using the ST2 scheme achieve superior performance near the typhoon center,whereas the ST4 and ST6 schemes perform better in other regions.

       

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